Donald Trump is on the verge of presiding over a unified government, with the GOP in control of the Presidency, the Senate, the House, and with a solid conservative majority in the Supreme Court. All but the House are already firmly in GOP control, and as of today (Sunday, November 11th) the GOP holds 214 seats, and the Democrat party controls 203. The first party to hit 218 seats gains control of the House Chamber for at least the next two years.
There are 18 more seats waiting for a call. Of these, the GOP is leading in 9, as are the Democrats. However, one of the GOP races is in Washington's 4th district, and the race is down to a dead heat between two Republican candidates, so technically the GOP has another seat already won. That puts the tally at 215-203, with the Dems competitive in nine races, and the GOP competitive in the other 8.
Alaska's 1st District contest between Republic Nick Begich and Democrat Mary Peltola could very likely go to the GOP. Begich leads by 4%, but is only at 49.5%. Alaska is a ranked-choice voting state, meaning that if no candidate crosses the 50% mark, the bottom candidate will be culled and their votes distributed to the other candidates based on the voters' second choice. In this case, the bottom candidate is another Democrat with 1% of the vote.
Let's assume that those votes go to Peltola, bringing her up to 46.4%. Neither candidate will have crossed the 50% threshold, at which point the 3.9% of voters from the Alaska Independent Party will have their votes redistributed. The AIP trends conservative though. If Begich can even pull away half a point's worth of those voters, he wins, putting the GOP at 216 and the Dems at 203.
That leaves 8 more races where the GOP leads. They'd need 2 of these to claim control. Thing is, all of these races are truly too close to call. There's solid momentum behind us, but anything can happen, especially when the majority of the ballots remaining are mail-in ballots, which have the highest propensity for cheating (see the 2020 election as an example).
Things look good, but there's not much any of us can do except watch, although we can pray that God brings out a favorable outcome and that we gain the control we're looking for.
Let's go with that.
